Team State Preview: Saturday Round #2 - D2/D3 Semis

POTENTIAL SKATZKA/SIMAZ SHOWDOWN LOOMS LARGE...

D2 - #1 LOWELL VS. #4 NILES

Dual Synopsis

I really, really like this Niles team, but this one seems a bit out of reach for them. The Vikings are rock solid from top to bottom, but they just don’t have anywhere near the same firepower as Lowell. Don’t get me wrong, the Red Arrows will have to work for everything they get, but I think a Nile’s victory would require an unrealistic amount of upsets.

From 112-135, and then again from 160-215, Lowell is simply lights out. It’s rather mind boggling to consider, but there is a legitimate possibility Lowell claims individual gold at all 9 of those weights. Niles has the toughness minimize the bonus point output of Lowell’s studs, but it will take a whole lot more than that to pull of an upset.

Obviously Lowell is heavy favorites at the 9 aforementioned weights. Of the remaining 5, I think 4 are tossups, and only at 145 is Niles a significant favorite. As I said, this Niles team is tough as nails and will make it a scrap at every weight, but they are flat out overmatched in this semifinal.

PS – I think I just came up with a decent nickname: Niles = Nails…because they’re so tough, get it!?!?

D2 - #2 ST. JOHNS VS. #3 TECUMSEH

Dual Synopsis

This dual may be a bit more competitive than Lowell/Niles (or Byron Center), but of the 4 divisions D2’s semifinals definitely appear to be the most one-sided. This Tecumseh team is among the best in program history, but even in the case of a few upsets I think St. John’s will rack up an insurmountable amount of bonus points in the middle of the lineup.

Tecumseh’s best bets to win are at opposite ends of the lineup, with #2 Rick Azelton at 103 and #3 Preston Pelham at 285. Both are favorites, but will have tough opponents in #8 Emilio Sanchez, and Nic Sturgis who was ranked in the top 10 prior to scratching at regionals. Even if Sturgis is not back for the Red Wings, Preston would still be tasked with HM Jake Gnegy.

Individually, the match I am most excited for is 215lbs where we will likely see #3 Ty Wildmo and #6 Landon Pelham. Both are highly active big guys with good motors, and this feels like a bout where the final point total could end up exceeding 20.

D3 - #1 DUNDEE VS. #5 GRAND RAPIDS CATHOLIC CENTRAL

Dual Synopsis

There will be some crazy firepower on display in this one. Looking up and down both lineups there is a combined total of 20 state qualifiers, at least 10 of whom I consider to be legitimate title contenders. As for narrative, this will be an interesting dual in the sense that it pits Dundee, one of state’s most storied and consistent programs, against GRCC, a team that has made a meteoric rise to prominence over the past couple seasons.

No question that Dundee is the favorite, but this feels like the type of dual where practically every match will be up for grabs depending on how Head Coaches Tim Roberts and BJ Schroder choose to line up their wrestlers. It’s definitely safe to say that neither will have any shortage of options, but beyond that there are almost no certainties.

For GRCC 119-140 is an especially versatile stretch, while Dundee’s flexibility is best from 140-160. Both teams also have some interesting options in the upperweights, but regardless of who wrestles where I think 171-285 will end up being a 2/2 split with limited bonus.

Given the numerous possibilities it’s hard to delve to deeply into individual matchups, but a couple pivotal weights that come to mind are #3 Devin Schroder/#8 Kole Krauss vs. #6 Zach Blevins at 119/125, and #1 Tye Thompson/#1 Teddy Warren vs. #5 Grant Tennihill at 189.

Ultimately, I have a hard time envisioning the defending champs being knocked off prior to the finals, but even if GRCC loses I am very interested to see how they compete in their first trip to BC, and in a high pressure dual against a borderline top-50 team in the country.

D3 - #2 ALLEGAN VS. #3 RICHMOND

Dual Synopsis

There is certainly no shortage of great semifinal matchups, but this is the one I am most eagerly anticipating. Two of the state’s premier programs, all sorts of lineup possibilities on both sides, and possibly the best individual matchup of the entire tournament…need I say more?

Down low the Tigers and Blue Devils are more or less even. I foresee Aaron Kilburn and #3 Foster Karmon both scoring big points for their respective sides, and all the other matches from 103-135 being tightly contested.

That brings us to the middle of the lineup, where we can only hope to see a showdown between #1’s Kyle Simaz and Devin Skatzka. In a combined 5 high school seasons leading up to this one, neither wrestler has ever failed to fall short of individual state finals. Not only would this be an incredible matchup from a talent standpoint, but stylistically as well. Neither wrestler is shy about attacking, and both have a terrific motor to go along with their superb neutral offense.

All of the other upperweights seem to have a pretty clear favorite with the exception of 171lbs. HM Levi Sabin is an absolute stud sophomore, but his opponent, Austin Peltier, will have a big time chip on his shoulder after falling a match short of returning to the Palace in his senior season.

COMMENTS

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Dave McPherson

OVER 9 YEARS

Wow St. Johns gets lucky! Bailed out by the ref. The HWY weight for St. Johns easily should have been DQ'd for stalling and thats the match decider right there. Terrible.

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