Round of 16
Day 1 should be interesting with 3 matchups between top-10 opponents on the slate. #1 Michael Higley of Edwardsburg and #2 Rick Azelton are the only returning placers at this weight, but both will have a significant test prior to the quarters. Higley will see tough St. Johns frosh Emilio Sanchez, currently ranked #8, and Azelton will have to get through #7 Drew Hutchinson of Clio, also a frosh. The final ranked matchup will be between a pair of freshmen, #4 Dom Lajoie of Gaylord and #10 Andrew Flick of Niles. Of the 3 ranked underdogs, I like Hutchinson’s odds of an upset the most.
Quarters
My most anticipated quarterfinal here is Lajoie against #5 Brendon Ladd of Ortonville Brandon. A Cadet FS All-American this summer, Lajoie’s only loss on the year came to #3 Dalton Roberts of Fowlerville in the regional final. The only knock on Lajoie is that he’s still not quite a full-sized 103lbr, but that will probably be a much more significant factor on Saturday after weigh-ins are complete.
Semis
Both ends of the bracket should feature great semis. Up top I’m predicting that Lajoie will upend Azelton to crack the finals in his Palace debut. On the opposite end Higley is the favorite, but my money is on #3-ranked Fowlerville senior Dalton Roberts, a USAW Junior Greco National Champ this summer, not to mention a 2012 FILA Cadet World Team Member.
Finals
Assuming we get the Roberts/Lajoie final I am projecting, it will be a rematch from the individual regional finals where Roberts won 3-2. I’m confident Lajoie will go on to do some pretty remarkable things before his days in HS are over, but this just feels like Roberts’s year to me.
Round of 16
The match to watch is #7 Aaron Parr-Bessemer of Berkley/#8 Brandon Meek of Niles. Both are upperclassmen who are pretty darn big at this weight class, and whoever loses will have a brutal blood round matchup, likely against #5 Bryan LaVearn of Ortonville Brandon, or #6 Dylan Wilkins of Sparta.
Quarters
#’s 1-3 are all in pretty good shape to reach the semis, but the expected LaVearn/Wilkins matchup atop the bracket should be a barnburner. As a returning state placer LaVearn is probably a slight favorite, but I really like what I’ve seen from Wilkins this season.
Semis
#1 Ian Parker of St. Johns and #2 Lucas Hall of Lowell are both among the country’s best lowerweights, and whoever advances here is a pretty overwhelming favorite to win in the finals. In 4 meetings over the past 15 months or so I believe the pair is split at 2 apiece with Hall most recently pinning Parker in this October’s GFC finals. It’s a match I have absolutely no confidence picking one way or the other, but Hall was down at 103 for team state last weekend, so that makes me lean towards Parker just a tad.
Finals
#3 Judah Caballero of New Boston Huron has been excellent this season, and at the Goodrich TOC he kept it to a 1-point decision against Parker. I expect a similar margin of victory this time around, but I have a hard time envisioning anyone other than Hall being able to knock off the extremely consistent Parker.
Round of 16
There’s a pair of top-10 matchups on Day 1, both of which could go either way. In the bracket’s first bout, #6 Trevor Gorman of Lamphere will take on #9 Coby Moore of BCW. Over the past month Gorman really seems to have picked up his wrestling, and I honestly believe he’s a title contender. However, he will really have his hands full with Moore who’s enjoying a stellar freshmen season. Our other big Day 1 matchup will also pit a freshman against a senior. #10 Luke Raczkowski of Parma Western looked impressive winning a regional title at Mason, but will be welcomed to the Palace by #8 Garrett Ruppal of FHN, a senior who knocked off 2X all-stater Jake Busing just to qualify.
Quarters
There’s a ton of parity at this weight, and seemingly endless combinations of semifinalists. Defending champ and #1-ranked Mason Smith of Clio is the biggest favorite to advance through this round, but will have a significant test in #4 Logan Welcher of Hamilton. Overall, the biggest matchup looks to be #2 Jake Chapman of Kearsley/#3 Zeth Dean of Lowell. Over the past few weeks Dean really seems to have hit his stride, and I feel good about his odds to make the finals.
Semis
If Dean can get through Chapman in the quarters he should have a relatively clear path to the finals. Ruppal is wrestling tough right now and capable of an upset, but my money is on Dean all the way. On the opposite end, Smith will have to get through #5 Chris Poland of Middleville TK. I’m a big fan of Poland’s, but in the end I get a strong senses we are in for Smith/Dean, a rematch of last year’s final.
Finals
This is a tough one for me. I know for a fact Dean was pretty far away from 100% when Smith pinned in the finals last year, so I’m trying not to read too heavily into that outcome. However, Smith really impressed me at the GFC this fall when he fought through an injury to gut out a 2OT win over D3 #1 Matt Santos, and I like him to win a similarly tight match on Saturday night.
Round of 16
There are a few really good Thursday matchups, but the one that really stands out is #3 Nick Dunlap of Marysville/#4 Brandon Tresemer of Zeeland East. Both are seniors and returning placers, and whoever gets their hand raised has a very solid shot at the finals. I don’t feel strongly one way or the other, but Dunlap really impressed me at the GFC. The other top-10 matchup will take place between #9 Blake Jackson of BCW and the always dangerous #10 Jon Wellman of New Boston.
Quarters
To be honest, assuming these are the actual quarterfinals, I feel pretty good about all 4 picks. The one I am most unsure of is #2 Garret Kaercher of Warren Lincoln, who will take on #6 David Leija of Waverly. Leija is new to MI this season, but was a 4th place state finisher in Nebraska a year ago. His results have been a tad inconsistent this season, but he has some very impressive wins including a defeat of last year’s 4th place finisher at 112lbs, Nate Ellis.
Semis
It’s a Macomb heavy weight, and of my 4 projected semifinalists only #5 Derek Krajewski of Lowell does not hail from Macomb County. #1 Nick Pipes of WWT is a 3X SQ who has never placed, but he has been lights out since coming down from 130lbs in January. On the opposite side of the bracket, familiar foes Kaercher and Dunlap will continue their rivalry with the highest stakes yet. The two have been trading wins since Kaercher’s HS career started last December, and if the pair was to wrestle 100 matches I doubt either would win more than 55 or so. It’s a bout where I have no leaning whatsoever, but I suppose I’ll roll with the senior in his final go at the Palace.
Finals
Assuming Dunlap gets through Kaercher, he will have another familiar foe in Pipes. The pair has met 3 times in the past month or so, with Pipes winning by scores of 10-6, 11-8, and most recently 5-2. Given the margins it seems like a match Dunlap can win, but this just feels like Pipes’s year to me.
Round of 16
This is an awesome weight, but I think most of the excitement will be put on hold until the quarters. I have #’s 1-8 all advancing through Day 1. Of that group, #7 Ameer Munasaar of Annapolis is the one with toughest early draw. He’ll see #9 Chase Veydt of Parma Western in a battle between returning SQ sophomores.
Quarters
I think #1 Jaedin Sklapsky of Eaton Rapids will roll, but the other 3 semis should all be a treat. However, the one that clearly stands out is #2 Austin Thompson of Marysville/#3 Bailey Jack of Lowell. This offseason Thompson broke out in a big way, and his only loss this season came to D1 #2 Ben Griffin. Jack is the returning champ, and as nasty as his neutral attacks are, I think Thompson uses his mat skills to grind out a tight one.
Semis
#4 Luke Spotts of Fremont and #5 Zeke Breuinger of Dexter are both seniors with all-state credentials, but I’m pretty confident we will see Sklapsky advance on the bottom half of the bracket, and the winner of Jack/Thompson on the top half.
Finals
Sklapsky is a multi-sport athlete who doesn’t compete much outside the HS season, and as a result he is probably a little underrated from a national perspective. However, he’s one of the most impressive athletes in the state, and a fierce competitor. I suppose I’d have to do some more research, but I doubt many other 130lbrs in the country started at both running back and linebacker for a state quarterfinalist football team! I’m a huge Thompson fan, but I think this is the weekend we see Sklapsky make the jump from good to great.
Round of 16
I think that the match to watch on Day 1 will be #6 Donald Janice of WWT/#9 Austin Melton of DeWitt. A top-notch sophomore, I think Melton’s ranking is a bit skewed at the moment. He took 3rd at regionals, but his only loss came against his older brother Kameron, who he otherwise outperformed this season. Janice has been rock solid all year, but I’m leaning towards Melton.
Quarters
Watch out for Austin Melton again this round. He will have an even tougher matchup in #2 Noah Hanau of Stevensville Lakeshore, but I think he’s definitely capable of an upset. As far as rankings go, the most notable quarterfinal will be #3 Tommy Martinez of Fruitport/#4 Tom Schoenherr of BCW. I don’t believe the pair has wrestled this season, but Martinez has a pair of common opponent victories over D1 #6 Adam Pawlowski.
Semis
#1 Jordan Hall of Lowell is the guy to beat, and I think his toughest test will come from Hanau in the semis. Hall is a first-class athlete, but I think Hanau can cause some problems for him with his savvy mat game. On the opposite end of the bracket, I will roll the dice on super-frosh Collin Lieber of Croswell Lexington, currently ranked #5. What I like about Lieber is the resilience he showed at regionals, coming back to avenge his only loss of the season, which was suffered against Janice a week prior.
Finals
If Hall gets through Hanau I think he will be a lot for Lieber to handle, especially on such a big stage. If his opponent ends up being Martinez instead, it would be a rematch from the district and regional finals where Hall won by scores of 3-2 and 5-2, respectively.
Round of 16
Usually when you have a nationally ranked senior gunning for his 4th state title a weight class clears out. Ironically, the opposite is true here, and this is arguably the deepest weight class of all divisions…hopefully not because some idiot (me) predicted #1 Zac Hall of St. Johns to be at 145lbs in his January SQ projections. Anyways, I think most of the big matches will be on hold until the quarters, but one Thursday I’m looking forward to watching is #7 Nolan Waddell of Byron Center/#10 Sam Johnson of Holly.
Quarters
This is where things get really fun. Hall should cruise, but the other 3 quarters are up for grabs. The one I most eagerly anticipate is #3 Chris Schoenherr of BCW/#4 Joel Rees of Sparta, both of whom did some of their best wrestling at the state tournament last season. Schoenherr has looked awesome after missing nearly the entire season with injury, and I imagine he is only continuing to improve with more time on the mat. I think he can create just a bit more offense for himself, and edges Rees in a tight one.
Semis
Plenty of possibilities, all of which should be a treat to watch. To be honest I think the chances of Hall losing are only slightly better than the chances of no one ever complaining about their ranking again, but I’m still very excited to see how he matches up with #5 Jake Klingaman of Jackson NW. Klingaman is a massive 140br with a lot of height on Hall, and he isn’t afraid to go big. At the end of day Hall is just too deadly on his feet for anyone here to hold a lead against, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Klingaman generate some offensive points of his own.
Finals
#2 Alec Ward of Greenville deserves a lot of credit for the season he has had. After finishing 7th in the state last season, Ward has been one of the state’s most improved wrestlers, and in most years/brackets would be good enough to snag a state title. Unfortunately for him, Hall has outscored opponents by a combined total of 54-17 in 3 finals prior, and posted a tech-fall when he and Ward met in the regional finals.
Round of 16
For the most part I see chalk ruling Day 1 at this weight, and #’s 1-8 all reaching the quarters. Of the group #5 Steve Kymes of Sault Ste. Marie will likely have the toughest test. He’s slated to see #9 Collin Butler of Fruitport, a senior and returning SQ.
Quarters
The heat will definitely turn up several notches in this round, and both of my projected finalists will see the highest ranked opponent on their side of the bracket. Up top, #1 Steve Bleise of Chelsea will see the very dangerous #4 Kaleb Rahoi of Escanaba in a match where both wrestlers should be able to put up offensive points. However, if big moves and high scores are what you like, then #2 Connor Myers of St. Joseph/#3 Mark Bozzo of St. Johns is the bout to watch. Myers isn’t afraid to launch anybody, and his barnburner of a regional final against Bleise was arguably the most entertaining bout I have seen this season.
Semis
Assuming Bleise and Myers can get through the quarters, I think both are in good shape to meet in the finals. #7 Khannor Kaercher of Warren Lincoln and Kymes are both returning placers who have enjoyed strong seasons, but I think they may be a bit outmatched should they reach the semis.
Finals
With all due respect to the other competitors on this chart, for selfish reasons I am really hoping Bleise/Myers is the match we get. As I mentioned the pair put on a show when they met two weeks back, and I don’t see it being any different this time around. It’s a tough call, but I’ll go with Bleise, a returning finalist and 3X placer, to put the finishing touches on an undefeated senior season.
Round of 16
Day 1 looks pretty clear cut, and #’s 1-8 are all favorites to advance to the quarters. My strongest potential upset candidate is #9 Jake Hopkins of Greenville, a senior who would’ve likely been an SQ and possibly even a placer if not for an injury suffered late last season. It’ll be a tall order for him though, as he’s got #4 Dillon Ellsworth of Lapeer East.
Quarters
It’s hard to picture anyone other than #1 Logan Massa of St. Johns and #2 Mike Willits of Lamphere in the top half of the chart’s semifinal. The bottom half is far more open, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if any of my 4 projected quarterfinalists were to end up wrestling Saturday night.
Semis
Willits is a former D1 runner-up with a lot of talent, but Massa is the most phyiscally dominant wrestler in the entire state, and I don’t see anyone slowing him down. Down low I’m taking #3 Bailey Bischer of Yale to reach the D2 finals after placing in D3 the past couple of seasons. Ellsworth is a returning placer as well, but Bischer beat him handily in the district finals, so stylistically the matchup seems to favor him.
Finals
Anything less than pure dominance by Massa would shock me. It’s no slight to the competition; he is just that good.
Round of 16
This bracket is going to be a lot of fun, and Thursday’s matchup between #6 Logan Ritchie of New Boston and #7 Drew Wixson of St. Johns should start things off with a bang. Ritchie is extremely explosive, and at the regular season’s conclusion I was convinced he would win this weight class. Since then, losses to #4 TJ Barnes of Summitt Academy and #5 Gunner Harrison of Stevensville Lakeshore have forced me to reassess my expectations, but I still think the 2X all-state junior gets through this tough draw on Day 1.
Quarters
I wouldn’t put much stock into the rankings at this weight, and I think all of the top 6 have a relatively similar chance to end up on top of the podium. Kanon Dean of Lowell has earned the #1 spot with his consistency, but I think he’ll have a tough time with Harrison in this round. From what I’ve seen of Harrison he’s not the type who’s going to dominate many opponents, but his scrappy and opportunistic style is perfect for a tournament like this.
Semis
I had a tough time picking the quarters at this weight, and it only gets tougher from there. I have virtually no confidence picking either of these semis, not even a gut feeling for that matter. I have been hearing rave reviews from my friends up north about #3 Travis Heller of Escanaba this season, and he impressed me at last year’s state tourney.
Finals
Not to sound like a broken record, but I don’t have a whole lot of logic I can share in regard to my picks at this weight. #2 Andrew Scott of Holly has always impressed me athletically, and although he finished 5th a year ago, he actually beat the eventual state champ Devon Pingel of North Branch a few weeks prior.
Round of 16
Not a super intriguing batch of Day 1 matchups, but I am looking forward to watching #4 Hunter McCoy of Annapolis. A senior, McCoy is a 2X SQ at 189 who dropped for his final HS season. He had a perfect mark prior to the regional finals, but was pinned promptly by #1 Devan Pingel of North Branch. Sometimes it’s best not to read too deeply into quick pins, but he’ll have a tough opponent in #10 Austin Taylor of Comstock Park.
Quarters
Pingel is the defending state champ, but he’ll have a big test waiting in #6 Mason Litz of Fowlerville. Litz’s season hasn’t been quite as strong I expected, but he’s still a Cadet FS All-American who stepped up at this tournament last year. Another matchup to keep an eye on will be #5 Rylen Droscha of Mason/#8 Brandon Deszell of Goodrich. In 3 previous trips to the Palace Droscha has fallen short of the podium, but he looked solid at regionals, and I think this is the year he finally breaks through.
Semis
For a kid who hadn’t qualified for states prior to this season, #3 James Davis of Kearsley is a flat out stud. That being said, I am pretty set on this final being a sophomore showdown between Pingel and #2 Max Dean of Lowell.
Finals
For the past month or so I’ve been ready to pick Dean to win this weight class. The kid is a flat out stud, and, reminiscent of older brother Gabe, always seems to rise to the occasion. Prior to last weekend I felt pretty gutsy picking against the defending champ, but I think Dean opened a lot eyes with the way battled when bumping against #1 Angus Arthur under huge pressure in the team finals this past Saturday.
Round of 16
Teammates #3 Tristan Gregory and #4 Shane Foster may end up meeting in all-Gaylord semifinal, or could also very well get bounced to the consolation bracket on Day 1. Gregory will have to get through #7 Derek Desloover of Yale, a first time SQ, but also the only wrestler to beat Devan Pingle this season. For Foster it will be #6 Noah Raymond of Lapeer West, a tough senior who nipped Desloover by a point in their district final match.
Quarters
Anyone other than #1 Angus Athur of St. Johns and #2 Garret Stehley of Lowell reaching the finals seems like a pretty distant possibility, but I’m pretty interested to see how Gregory fares against Stehley considering that he’ll likely be his toughest competition prior to the finals. Another wrestler I’m interested to watch is #5 Diallo Matisimella of Annapolis who seemingly came out of nowhere this season, and has only lost to D1 #1 Derek Hillman.
Semis
I won’t go into a ton of detail here. There are a lot of potential opponents that Arthur and Stehley could run into on Friday night, but I’d be shocked if either fails to return to the finals.
Finals
There’s definitely no excess of good will shared between Lowell and St. Johns, and the fact that Arthur is a former teammate of Stehley’s only fuels the rivalry. Throughout his high school career Stehley has been one of the state’s top big guys, but unless finds a way to slow the match considerably, I think Arthur’s non-stop attack will be a bit too much.
Round of 16
Ranking this weight has been a nightmare this season, and last weekend’s results in BC only made things more chaotic. Given Day 1’s matchups, fans likely won’t have to wait long for that chaos to ensue. #5 Cameron Lee of Waverly is among the many title contenders, but will have his hands full with #8 Zack Underwood of Carlson. #6 Landon Pelham of Tecumseh could also be in for a test against #10 Nathan LaJoie of Sault Ste. Marie. Although he was a virtual unknown prior to the postseason, Lajoie announced himself with a quarterfinal upset of Lee at regionals. He ended up losing to Lee later that day when they met again for 3rd, but considering that Lee beat Pelham in their only meeting this season I’d say LaJoie definitely has a shot to upset.
Quarters
Things only get tougher to project from here on in. Prior to this weekend I didn’t see anyone beating #1 Josh Colegrove of Lowell, but after watching #3 Ty Wildmo knock him off in the team finals I’d say this weight is officially without a favorite. Colegrove will have to get through the very tough Lee in his quarterfinals, but all my bets are on Colegrove/Wildmo advancing to set up a semifinals rematch. On the lower half of the bracket #2 Jake Alarie has far and away the best draw, and is the only top-10 wrestler in his quarter bracket. In the other quarter, we will most likely see Pelham take on #4 Chase Challender of Charlotte. Both are serious contenders, but I loved what I saw from Pelham in his pin over Wildmo this weekend.
Semis
Even with 2X champs Drew Garcia and Jordan Cooks likely to meet in D1, the Colegrove/Wildmo showdown is arguably the most anticipated semifinal across all divisions, and rightfully so. I hate to pick against Wildmo after the way he performed in their first matchup, but I think it was probably a bit of a reality check for the previously undefeated Colegrove. In the other semifinal I am rolling with Pelham, who looked as good as he ever has in arguably the most high-pressure match of his career on Saturday afternoon.
Finals
Given the all the possible finalist combinations it almost feels silly focusing too much on one matchup, but if Colegrove/Pelham does happen it would be a rematch from the DCC Invite. Colegrove ended up winning that match by fall after jumping out to a considerable lead, but Pelham took himself out of it early by failing to convert a couple high risk/high reward attacks. I think this time around will be significantly more competitive, but I see this being a big bounce back weekend for Colegrove.
Round of 16
This a deep chart with a lot of good opening matchups, but the most notable is between returning SQ’s #5 Nate Pewoski of Hastings and #9 Tyler Eible of Clio. I don’t have a great feel for either, but after a bit of a disappointing performance at the state tournament last March I think Eible is due to breakout in his final trip to the Palace.
Quarters
The top half of the bracket seems pretty likely to produce a semifinal consisting of #1 Colton Pfaendtner of St. Clair and #3 Preston Pelham of Tecumseh, both seniors and returning placers. The lower half is a lot cloudier, and there are a number of potential semifinal matchups that would not surprise me in the slightest. #2 Chris Hendricks of Fruitport is an absolute monster, and would have likely placed if not sidelined by an injury last season, but #6 Michael Abouya is a full-sized 285lbr with a dangerous upper body game.
Semis
With an undefeated mark and #1 ranking, Pfaendtner is definitely the favorite, but I feel pretty good picking Pelham. He doesn’t have the same physical abilities as most of the other highly ranked heavies, but he’s got a great mat IQ and is very comfortable wrestling tight, one point matches. Everyone who hasn’t seen #4 Dan Perry of Lapeer East yet really needs to watch him in the other semi. Only a sophomore, Perry is a true specimen, but I think he will be a tad overmatched against Hendricks.
Finals
In their match this December Hendricks used a clutch ride-out to hand Pelham the lone loss of his senior season. Once again this is a matchup where Pelham is giving up size and will be at a physical disadvantage, but of all the guys on this chart I am most confident in his ability to string together 3 or 4 tight wins against top-notch competition.
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Angus Arthur:
Great wrestler.
Completely classless. That should have been a midsconduct point and tied up the match. We can't let kids taunt the crowd, this isn't WWE.
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Just because another kid did something like that makes it alright? No. It's way different than when the Lowell kids do it, its not taunting.
And I dislike the Lowell program very much. Boudro and the coaching staff are a bunch of cry babies.
When Arthur did it, it was with intent at Lowell fans to taunt them.
Clear as day picture by Randy Miniard(sp?) on the Hghschoolsportsscene of Jordan Hall with the bird up, waiting for the podium pictures to come up
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