Round of 16
All arrows point to #5 Rich Ostrander of Chip Hills/#6 Ethan Woods of Manchester as the match to watch on Day 1 at this weight. Ostrander is a senior and returning SQ who looked really good in BC last weekend, but Woods is an impressive freshman with serious upside. Day 1’s other top-10 matchup will pit #10 Drew Mandell of Dundee against #4 Nick McGhan of Howard City.
Quarters
It’s a brutal draw for Ostrander and Woods, and whoever emerges from their Day 1 meeting will get the “reward” of seeing Armada’s #3-ranked Jared Hasenauer on Friday morning. Hasenauer hasn’t lost since December and has really jumped levels in his sophomore season, but I’m going with this weight’s lone senior, Ostrander, to make a run to the semis in his final appearance at the Palace.
Semis
McGhan and Ostrander traded wins in the district/regional finals, and, while an upset for either isn’t too far-fetched, I think #1 Tristan Serbus of Corunna and #2 Brendan Abrigo of Manchester continue their stellar seasons and advance to the finals.
Finals
Serbus/Abrigo would be a rematch from the regional final where Serbus prevailed with an OT takedown. Both have stellar records and Palace experience, but I’ll go with Serbus to squeak out another tight one.
Round of 16
#3 Kenny Reinhart of Dundee has really impressed me this season, but he’ll need to be on top of his game to get through #7-ranked senior Joey Nemeck of Capac on Thursday afternoon. Both are all-state caliber, but whoever loses will likely draw #2 Arthur Payne of Montrose or #5 Zach King of Chippewa Hills in the Blood Round.
Quarters
King is a 2X all-state senior who has wrestled well up at 119lbs for most of the season, and I think his matchup with Payne, last year’s D4 runner-up, should be a good one. However, the match I’m especially excited about is Reinhart/#4 Glenn Beardsley of Farwell. I was thoroughly impressed by Beardsley at the GFC this fall, and the frosh has been on a roll since dropping from 119lbs for his league tourney.
Semis
This weight is extremely deep, and at the very least I think #’s 1-6 all have a pretty legitimate shot at the finals. #1 Aaron Kilburn of Richmond is clearly the guy to beat, but Reinhart took him down to the wire at team state, so his spot in the finals is far from a sure thing. On the opposite end of the bracket I’m going with Suitor, who really impressed me in a win over Reinhart in the team semifinals.
Finals
There’s no shortage of potential matchups, but if Kilburn/Suitor are in fact the finalists it will be a rematch from regionals where Kilburn earned a 2-1 decision. After watching both this weekend I’m tempted to roll the dice on a Suitor upset, but after flipping back and forth a couple times this week I’ve decided to stick with the favorite.
Round of 16
With #’s 1-4 all being sophomores who wrestled in state finals last March, this weight class is more or less a “who’s who?” for Michigan’s class of 2016 lowerweights. Of that group, #3 Devin Schroder of GRCC has the toughest Day 1 opponent in #6 Jared Corcoran of Lake Fenton, but I think all 4 are safe bets to advance.
Quarters
Once again I feel pretty good about all 4 of the aforementioned sophomores advancing. #4 Alex Martinez of Ida will have to get through the very solid #5 Joe Shuler of Meridian, but I like his chances.
Semis
Assuming this bracket plays out as I have predicted, the top half’s semifinal would be Schroder/Martinez in rematch from last year’s 112lbs state final, while the bottom half would feature #1 Kanen Storr of Leslie/#2 Reiley Brown of Whitehall who met in the state finals at 103lbs last March. Both matches will be tightly contested, but I’m going with the defending champs, Storr and Schroder.
Finals
This is one of Saturday night’s premier matchups, and the contrast in style between Storr/Schroder should be very interesting to watch. Storr is a dynamo on his feet who never stops attacking, and Schroder prefers to wrestle at a slower pace while relying more heavily on his mat skills. I’m a bit torn, but ultimately I feel that Storr just has too many different ways of scoring from neutral, and Schroder will have a hard time matching his offensive output.
Round of 16
There are a few bouts that intrigue me, but none more so than #4 Marshall Conley of Caro/#8 Kole Krauss of GRCC. Both are returning placers, but Krauss is making the jump up from 103lbs while Conley drops down after wrestling 130lbs a year ago. The first half of Conley’s season was lost to injury, but since returning he seems to be gaining steam, and after taking #1 Matt Santos of Swan Valley down to the wire in a 10-9 regional final I think he’s officially verified his status as a contender.
Quarters
#8 Krauss got a rough draw, but I think all 7 wrestlers ranked above him are in good shape to make the quarters. The top matches of this round will be #3 Foster Karmon of Allegan/#6 Todd Blevins of Dundee, and #4 Conley/#6 Nathan Weckesser of Big Rapids. However, don’t sleep on #7 Jackson Lambdin of Allendale either. The junior has been wrestling very well as of late, and I think he will present a significant challenge for defending champ and #2-ranked Jerry Fenner of Birch Run.
Semis
This weight is rich in both depth and parity, and both semifinals feel more or less open for the taking. On the top half I really like what I’ve seen from Karmon this season. Santos is a beast and has earned the #1 spot, but I’m going with the extremely poised and technical Karmon to eek out a low-scoring battle. Down low, defending champ Fenner will have his hands full with Weckesser who likely would’ve been a high placer in D2 last March if nor for missing weight.
Finals
Once again this is a match where I see a lot of different possibilities, but I have a good feeling about Karmon. He’s the flashiest or most explosive, but the sophomore is extremely consistent and does a good job of managing the tight matches he will likely encounter this weekend.
Round of 16
Chalk should rule the top half of the bracket on Day 1, but the opposite end is a different story. #5 John Barry of Lake Fenton had never advanced through districts prior to this season, but the senior really seems to have hit his stride in the latter half of his final HS season. However, his Palace debut will come against a returning placer, #9 Grant Turnmire of Almont. In what is arguably an even bigger Day 1 matchup, 2012 state champ and #6-ranked Dakota Ball of Ida will match up with all-state senior #8 Nick Torres of Bullock Creek.
Quarters
#1 Brendan O’Connor of Dundee has proven himself as the guy to beat and feels like a safe bet to get past #7 Zane Corey of Allegan and into the semifinals. However, the other 3 quarterfinals appear to be far less clear. #4 Blake Russo of GR West Catholic was a state runner-up last March who entered the postseason undefeated, but lost to #5 Jesse Scheidel of Belding in the district/regional finals. I’m interested to see how he responds in a big semifinal against #2 Santos Alvarez of Algonac.
Semis
I don’t believe Alvarez has lost since dropping to 130lbs midway through the season, but he’ll get his toughest test yet against top-ranked O’Connor in the semis. On the opposite end of the chart Ball has a brutal road to the finals, but, as he is done in the past, I think the junior steps up and returns to the finals after falling just shy last March.
Finals
O’Connor and Ball have met on several occasions this season, and although O’Connor was pretty dominant in their most recent meeting Ball did pin him back in December. O’Connor may be a tad weaker than usual after dropping to 125lbs to help Dundee capture a team title last weekend, but he simply has been too good as of late for me to pick anyone else.
Round of 16
#1 Nate Limmex of GRCC is arguably the heaviest favorite regardless of weight/division, but after him this weight really opens up quite a bit. The top Day 1 match will be #3 Alex Young of Williamston/#9 Ben Pickford of Onsted. Pickford’s been a little up and down this season, but nearly all of his wins seem to come via fall.
Quarters
Due to a DQ at individual regionals there is an open slot on the bottom half of the chart, and that ought to give stud frosh #4 Sean Sterling of Dundee a pretty clear path to the semis opposite Limmex. #2 Colin Dole of Swan Valley has really emerged as a stud this season and should advance through his quarter-bracket on the top half of the chart, and I like #7 Jacob Engle of Armada to bounce back after a stumble at regionals and fill the final spot in the semifinals.
Semis
Based on recent performance Dole is the favorite to make the finals up top, but Engle is the only returning placer at this weight other than Limmex, so I’m banking on his Palace experience to pay off.
Finals
Regardless of opponent, I don’t see any way Limmex loses, or for that matter even has a particularly close match. He was banged up earlier this season, but as long he anywhere remotely close to 100% I think Limmex is on an entirely different level than his competition.
Round of 16
This weight is extremely loaded, but the premier matchups won’t come until the quarters. As far as Thursday goes, I think the match to watch is #7 Charlie Ferens of Freeland/#9 Dylan Unger of Shelby, both of whom are seniors and returning SQ’s. Another wrestler to keep an eye on will be #8 Josh Flores of Swan Valley, a returning state placer whose brutal regional landed him a Day 1 matchup with #3 Jordon Bennett of Lakewood, a state runner-up at 145lbs last March.
Quarters
#1 Zehlin Storr of Leslie and #4 Nick Burg of Richmond are both heavy favorites in their respective quarterfinals, but the other 2 bouts should be far more competitive. Defending champ and #2-ranked Doug Rojem will take on Bennett in one of Friday’s most notable battles, and #5 Alim Muhammed of Big Rapids will likely see #6 Adam McCann of Bullock Creek in another strong matchup.
Semis
#1 Zehlin Storr of Leslie wrestled Rojem in both the district and regional finals, and I think they will find themselves squaring off once again on Saturday night. Of the pair Rojem’s road is tougher, but his projected semifinal opponent, Burg, was all the way down at 130lbs for team state last weekend.
Finals
In their district finals match it took an OT takedown for Storr to get by Rojem, but at regionals the next weekend he opened it up for an 8-3 decision. I think Rojem keeps it tight in this meeting, but I have a lot more confidence in Storr’s ability to initiate and score from neutral.
Round of 16
Without a doubt the match to watch on Thursday is #3 Sean Marogen of Dundee/#5 Hunter Gasper of Standish Sterling. Gasper is among the state’s premier freshman, but will be an underdog against the seasoned Marogen who defaulted at the state tournament last year, but otherwise had a solid chance to place.
Quarters
#1 Kyle Simaz of Allegan and #2 Chad Decker of Grass Lake shouldn’t have a ton of trouble advancing to the semis, but the other 2 bouts should be far more competitive. #4 Jake Van Scoter of Richmond vaulted up in the rankings after pinning Gasper at regionals, but I think he is pretty evenly matched with #9 Adam Kehr of Reed City. In the other quarterfinal I’m going with #6 Sam McClean of Swan Valley, who has only lost twice on the season.
Semis
Simaz and Decker are clearly the guys to beat, and if either falls prior to the finals it would be a huge upset. If McClean were on the opposite side of the bracket I’d say he had a shot of reaching the finals with an upset of Decker, but I don’t see any way he can stop Simaz’s non-stop neutral attack.
Finals
Assuming Simaz and Decker do in fact meet on Saturday night it would be rematch from January’s Hudson Super 16 where Simaz won 12-5. I expect a similar result this time around, and possibly even a major for Simaz. Granted, Decker’s only other loss of the year came in OT to D2 #1 Steve Bleise, but he had a couple of close calls against unranked opponents at regionals.
Round of 16
Both of Day 1’s top 10 matchups look like they could go either way. On the top half of the bracket #5 Dakota Hoffman of Whitehall will see #6 Cody Sanders of Lake Fenton. Despite having a bit less credentials I like Sanders in this one. He’s really wrestling well as of late, including a win over Birch Run’s #3 Mitch Franklin in the team regional final. In the other meeting of ranked opponents, I like highly talented sophomore and #8-ranked Spencer Knizacky of MCC to get past returning SQ Noah Bargouthy of Garber.
Quarters
#1 Devin Skatzka is gunning for his 3rd title in as many years, and as tough as Franklin is I think he’s significantly outmatched in their likely meeting this round. Of the other quarters, the most evenly matched looks to be Sanders against #7 Terry Grieser of Lakeview. Sanders appears to have found his groove late in the season, and I’ll take him to reach the semis in his first and last appearance at the Palace.
Semis
Skatzka is an overwhelming favorite on the top half of the bracket, and #2 Eric Coval is the most likely candidate to meet him in the finals. #4 Anthony Guerra of Shelby is a 3X SQ who should also have a good shot, but I like Coval to keep his undefeated senior season intact heading through Friday night.
Finals
As previously stated, Coval is spotless on the year, but he’s a significant underdog against Skatzka. Crazier things have happened, but I’m taking Skatzka 10 times out of 10.
Round of 16
This is an extremely wide open weight, and fans won’t have to wait long for some great matchups. Formerly ranked #1, current #7 Jared Elliott of Birch Run took a tumble after losing to #6 Donny Mandell of Dundee at regionals last week. I like Elliott to bounce back in a big way this weekend, but he’ll have to be on top of his game early against Alma’s #2 Boyd Hubbard. Mandell will also be in store for a big test on Day 1 against returning SQ and #8-ranked Logan Emery of Clare.
Quarters
#4 Brandon Dyke of Allendale and #5 Carson Whaley of Lake Fenton are both returning placers with state title aspirations, but whoever loses their expected quarterfinal matchup will likely catch Hubbard in the blood round. All 3 of those wrestlers mentioned have been ranked either #1 or #2 this season, but from the looks of it one will likely fall short of placing.
Semis
There’s no shortage of parity at this weight, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see anyone ranked in the top 8 make the semis. On the top half of the bracket I like Elliott to get past stud frosh #3 Chase Beard of Allegan for back-to-back finals appearances. The other semi should be a barnburner, but I’ll stick with #1 Tristan Zienkiewciz of Farwell.
Finals
Don’t let the rankings fool you, Zienkiewicz and Elliott should be very evenly matched foes. Elliott came up short on Saturday night last March, but after regionals he’ll have a chip on his shoulder, and I think the senior gets his glory this time around.
Round of 16
There are a number of good matches, but none as intriguing as #4 Jared Roehl of Millington/#5 Trent Hilger of Lake Fenton. Both are among the state’s truly elite freshmen, and Roehl won narrowly when they met early in the season. However, of all wrestlers freshmen seem to generally make the greatest improvements over the course of a season, and Hilger looked awesome in BC last weekend. A lot of that probably has to do with having #3-ranked teammate Andy Donoho as a daily drilling partner, so I’m going with him to avenge the loss.
Quarters
Whoever wins the Day 1 match between Roehl and Hilger should be in good shape for the quarters, and I also feel confident in Dundee’s #1 Tye Thompson and Caro’s #2 Skylar Ley. That leaves Donoho’s match with #6 Brandon Ayris of Clare. Last March Ayris was a placer at this weight while Donoho lost in the blood round, but Donoho, who only has a few seasons wrestling experience, has made huge strides over the past year.
Semis
If things go as predicted, it will be an all Lake Fenton semifinal between Donoho/Hilger. Meanwhile, Thompson and Ley will meet for a #1 v. #2 clash on the opposite end of the bracket. Ley is not afraid or unable to go big, and is a proven gamer. However, I think Thompson is the most well rounded wrester at this weight.
Finals
Thompson/Donoho would be a rematch from the regional final where Thompson prevailed 7-3. Donoho is a beast and will probably trim the victory margin, but, relative to the rest of this chart, Thompson is just too polished for me to pick against.
Round of 16
This is an awesome group of highly skilled upperweights, but most of the top matchups will be on hold until Friday morning. Of Thursday’s bouts, the most competitive looks to be #9 Albert Flores of Hemlock/#10 Jason VanDyken of Howard City.
Quarters
Defending champ and #1 ranked Teddy Warren of Dundee looks to have a pretty clear route to the semis, but each of the other 3 quarterfinals should be terrific. The one I’m anticipating most is #2 Hunter Dunn of Jefferson/#3 Jake McKiernan of Richmond. Both are seniors as well as returning placers, and this would be a rematch from Hudson Super 16 in January. Dunn earned a 3-2 decision in that meeting, but keep in mind it came in the final bout of a day where both had already wrestled some hard fought battles.
Semis
Based on my projections, both of these matchups should be a treat. In addition to McKiernan, Dunn also wrestled #5 Grant Tennihill of GRCC at Hudson in January. Dunn won that match it UTB, and I expect a similarly tight battle in their next installment. #4 Neil McGully of Belding is not particularly well known, but he is capable of winning this weight. In fact, he majored Warren when they met at team state last February.
Finals
Both have some serious roadblocks standing between them and the finals, but ultimately I think we will see Warren and Dunn meet for the 4th time in 5 weeks. Warren, who missed most of the season with injury, lost his first two matches with Dunn, but finally bested him in the regional finals. Given their familiarity this match will probably be extremely tight and largely mental, but Warren seems to be getting better every week he is back on the mat.
Round of 16
Everyone ranked in top 5 looks to be in good shape on Day 1, but Thursday should feature a pair of good battles between wrestlers ranked in the back half of the top 10. The first of these bouts will pit #7 Brendan Hensley of Clare against #10 Quentin Wilber of Montrose. Wilber qualified for states in D4 as a frosh last season, and really seems to be picking it up after a slow start. In the other match between ranked foes, #6 Chase Hull of Lake Fenton looks pretty evenly matched with #8 Jack Cronick of Gladstone. The winner gets stuck wrestling #1 Colin Beebe of Allendale in their next match, but the loser will probably end up with a tough blood round opponent in Capac’s #9 Brad Harris.
Quarters
I feel pretty confident #’s 1-4 all advance to the semis, but of the group GRCC’s #2 Dan Drummond has the toughest task. He will see #5 George Lahar of Birch Run, who has really impressed me after jumping up a couple weights from 171lbs last season.
Semis
#3 Kendall Betteridge is a stud who is no stranger to winning at the Palace, but I think their semifinal is Beebe’s to lose. The opposite end will feature a good one between Drummond and #4 Adam Ball of Manistee. I’m admittedly not too familiar with Ball, but I think Drummond’s brutal regular season schedule has him well prepared for this tournament.
Finals
Beebe and Drummond have had a lot of meetings over the past few seasons, and although Drummond has come close on multiple occasions, it has always been Beebe who prevailed. I expect a tight, conservative bout that will probably be decided by a lone takedown, but after falling inches short last March I think is Beebe’s year.
Round of 16
With 4 returning all-staters and 6 more qualifiers this is an extremely deep and seasoned group of big guys. I have #’s 1-8 all reaching the quarters, but Day 1 should be very competitive. In particular #7 Doug Wyman of MCC/#9 Tristan Howard of Dowagiac should be a good battle between returning SQ’s.
Quarters
Despite an undefeated season and #1 ranking, Allendale’s Glenn Geurink still managed to draw the toughest quarterfinal. His opponent will be #3 Joe Foret of Garber, a returning placer and rare 3X SQ at 215/285lbs. Another quarter I’m eager to watch is #2 Eric Fader of Meridian/#5 Hunter Shaw of Whitehall. Both were SQ’s last season, and both made the decision to move up after competing at 215lbs in the regular season.
Semis
Geurink’s toughest test prior to the finals will be Foret, and if he can win there I think he’s in good shape to advance through the semis. On the opposite end of the bracket, Fader and #4 Presley Kellogg of MI Center should be a good one. Both are very skilled heavies with all-state credentials.
Finals
This should be a dandy. Both Geurink and Fader are very athletic 285lbrs who can move well and are comfortable wrestling in positions not typical of their weight class. It’s a match I could easily see going either way, and although Fader won when they competed at the Midwest Grand Challenge this spring, Geurink just seems to get better every time I watch him.
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