Round of 16
With 4 matchups between top 10 opponents, this will be one of the most interesting weights to watch unfold on Day 1. Of all the opening round matchups, I’m most interested to see if #5 Dayton VanderPloeg of Martin can hang with #2 Cory Agens of Hesperia. I’m inclined to think Agnes, a senior and 2X SQ, will be a bit much for him to handle. However, VanderPloeg’s results have been extremely impressive this season, and based solely on the eyeball test I have to imagine Agens is making a pretty significant cut. #1 Davian Gowens, another Hesperia wrestler and the lone 2013 placer on this chart, will also have a good early test in returning SQ and #6-ranked Chaz Kehres of Dansville.
Quarters
Agens and Gowens both have more favorable draws in the quarterfinals and should be in good shape as long their weight is under control. #3 Connor Krupp of New Lothrop also looks like a heavy favorite to reach the semis, so that leaves #4 Mason Rife of Webberville/#9 Reese Jones of Watervliet as my most anticipated matchup in this round.
Semis
Rife is an excellent freshman with a bright future, but I think he will be overpowered against the veteran Agens should they meet in the semis. In the opposite semi I think Krupp has a better shot to upset, but this weight class feels destined to end in an all Hesperia final.
Finals
Gowens missed most of the season, but the lack of competition doesn’t seem to have affected him too adversely. He beat Agens by a point in both the district and regional finals, but when two teammates square off, especially with stakes this high, conventional wrestling logic tends to go by the wayside.
Round of 16
This is a weight with a number of serious title contenders, but all are spread out pretty equitably as far as Thursday goes. I have #’s 1-8 all reaching the semis, but of this group #4 Marcus Richardson of Addison will probably have toughest test against #9 Alex Baker of CCC. #3 Tyler Roberts should also be in for a challenge in his matchup with #10 Trevor Hilgendorf of Fulton.
Quarters
On the lower half of the bracket I don’t see anything other than a #1 Clay Ragon of Dansville/#2 Roddy Hamdan of Hudson semifinal. However, the top half is much deeper, and I think all of my 4 projected quarterfinalists have a relatively comparable chance to wrestle on Saturday night.
Semis
I don’t feel confident in any one wrestler to emerge from the top half of the bracket, but I’ve always been a fan of Lawton’s #5 Julian Torres who was undefeated prior to bumping up against #3 Cole Hersch at 119lbs for team state last weekend. In the other semifinal it’s hard to pick against Hamdan, the returning champ, but Ragon has been a man on a mission, and out-placed Hamdan at Hudson Super 16 in January.
Finals
No combination of wrestlers ranked in the top 6 would surprise me for this final, and I am even less confident as to who claims the title. I’m sticking with #1 Ragon, but beyond his ranking I don’t have a ton of rationale beyond the pick.
Round of 16
Of all divisions D4’s regionals seemed to have the greatest disparity of talent, and as a result there seem to be great Day 1 matchups at nearly every weight. For instance, on this chart there are 4 top-10 wrestlers in the same quarter bracket, so somebody very good will be going 2 & BBQ.
Quarters
#1 Logan Griffin of Erie Mason and #2 Dresden Simon of Dansville are my picks to reach the finals, and their toughest test prior to Saturday night will come in this round. Simon will have to get past Hudson’s #4 Isaac Dusseau, a 3X placer and returning runner-up at this weight. Meanwhile, Griffin will be tasked with #3 Cole Hesrch of New Lothrop who is quickly emerging as a hammer.
Semis
If Griffin and Simon get through their brutal quarterfinals they should be in pretty good shape on Friday night. Both have a number of potential semifinal opponents, but if either loses prior to the finals I am pretty confident it will be at the hands of Hersch/Dusseau.
Finals
This should be one of D4’s top finals, or any division for that matter. Griffin doesn’t blow people away, but he’s great in tight matches, and proved it by winning a state title in UTB last March.
Round of 16
It’s not a super intriguing batch of Day 1 matchups, but #3-ranked returning placer Jared Gauthier of Iron Mountain has a pretty tough draw against #7 Dustin Scott of Montabella. The only other top-10 matchup is #9 Austin Wilt of Adrian Madison/#10 Tyler Britton of Reading.
Quarters
#1 Zack Yates of Hesperia and #2 Dallas O’Green have a relatively clear path to the semis on their side of the chart, but both quarterfinals on the opposite end should be far more competitive. No one stands out as clear favorite in either bout, but Birchmeier, who qualified up at 130lbs last season, looked really good in BC this weekend.
Semis
#1 Zack Yates of Hesperia is the defending state champ and a pretty heavy favorite to repeat in his senior season, but #2 Dallas O’Green of CCC is an extremely tough sophomore who kept it to a 2-1 decision when they met earlier this season. The opposite semi is pretty much up for grabs, but I’m rolling with Birchmeier based on what I saw from him in New Lothrop’s run to the D4 state championship.
Finals
In his state finals match last March Yates went out and recorded a fall in under a minute. I don’t expect it to end quite as quick this time around, but he’s definitely a considerable favorite to win handily regardless of opponent.
Round of 16
There is excellent depth at this weight, and it will be on display early. The lower side of the bracket is a bit stronger from top to bottom, and should feature a pair of tightly contested matches between top 10 opponents: #5 Lucian Parish of Decatur/#10 Alex Edwards of Iron Mountain, and #6 Kahle Scheenks
Quarters
I have chalk ruling this round, and #’s 1-4 all reaching the semis. Of the group #1 Carter Ballinger of Blissfield is projected to wrestle the most highly ranked opponent in Parish. I also think that #3 Matthew Elliot of Fife Lake Forest will be in for a battle against #8 Garret Martin of Holton. Last year Martin fell short of qualifying, but the 2012 all-stater has bounced back to enjoy a stellar junior season.
Semis
Both of these semis should be fantastic. Of all the wrestlers on this chart Elliott finished the highest at last season’s state tournament, but #2 Kyle Barkovich of Lawton has impressed the heck out of me this season. Ballinger will have a slightly more favorable matchup, but #4 Gabe Bennett of New Lothrop is far from an easy out.
Finals
After wrestling at 103/112 in his first two HS seasons Barkovich has made a masterful transition to 130lbs. Ballinger is a stud in his own right, but after watching him in BC this weekend I am officially sold on Barkovich winning a title.
Round of 16
The top 3 ranked wrestlers all came out the same regional, so they are pretty nicely spread out among this chart. As far as Thursday goes there aren’t a ton of notable matchups, but #3 Cole Menck of Lawton should get a good early test form #8 Kyle Baxter of Mayville.
Quarters
2012 state champ and #1-ranked Brock Thumm of Watervliet should cruise to the semis, but each of the other 3 semis should be highly competitive. The one I am most eagerly anticipating is #2 Hunter Bell of Decatur/#4 Trent Roesly of Hesperia. Bell is an absolute hammer with a unique style, but Roesly was extremely impressive at the GFC this fall.
Semis
Once again the path looks pretty clear for top-ranked Thumm. Meanwhile, I see Bell meeting Menck in a battle between league rivals. In their district semifinal match Bell won by fall, but in their prior season meeting it was just a 5-4 decision.
Finals
I have a pretty strong feeling this will end up being Thumm/Bell. My only hesitation is that Bell injury defaulted to Thumm in both the district and regional finals, and it’s tough to speculate as to why. When they met in the regular season Thumm edged Bell 3-2, and I foresee a similar outcome in the rematch. Thumm missed the state tournament due to an injury last year, but in the season prior he pulled off an extremely impressive state finals upset over the defending champ Matt Mata.
Round of 16
The top half of the chart is absolutely stacked, and two pairs of wrestlers with top-8 rankings will go at it on Day 1. #5 Brandon Rodenburg of Kent City has had an excellent sophomore season, but will have to get through 2X SQ and #8-ranked Cole Gonzales of Norway. Meanwhile, #4 Joey Sobeck of Rogers City will go at it with #6 Hayden Cregg of Holton.
Quarters
The bottom half of the chart seems pretty clear-cut, and anyone other than #2 Chase Siersema of Hesperia and #3 Steve Garza of New Lothrop reaching the semis would be a big surprise. On the top the half 2X state champ Cole Weaver is an overwhelming favorte, so that leaves Rodenburg/#7 Andreas Montoya of Contstantine likely to be the most competitive match in this round.
Semis
Montoya is undefeated on the season and coming off an impressive regional title-winning performance, but there’s no way anyone is touching Weaver prior to the finals. Siersema/Garza should be a great semi, but I feel good picking Siersema based on his excellent performance in BC this weekend.
Finals
Siersema is a stud who will likely end his career as a 3X finalist, but Weaver is on another level. He isn’t usually the type to go out and score a ton of points, but I think this is a match Weaver controls from start to finish.
Round of 16
There’s a few Day 1 matchups of note, but the most intriguing is #3 Darren Decker of CCC/#7 Nick Klemm of Adrian. Both were state placers last season, but whoever loses this Day 1 bout will probably be tasked with either #2 Aaron Bauman of New Lothrop or #5 Kyle Nixon of Pine River in the blood round.
Quarters
#1 Waters is the defending champ and his path back to the semis appears pretty clear. Beyond that, things look pretty murky. Bauman really impressed me in BC this weekend, but he’ll have his hands full with Nixon, a 2X state placer. Furthermore, whoever emerges from the Thursday matchup between Decker and Klemm will likely see #4 David Jacobs of Hesperia.
Semis
The top-half of the bracket is extremely wide open and could unfold a lot of different ways, but my best bet is Jacobs who’s made an impressive transition up from 130lbs a year ago. Meanwhile, the other semi feels like a 3-horse race between Waters, Bauman and Nixon. It’s tough to bet against a returning champ in Waters, but Bauman looked fantastic in New Lothrop’s run to a D4 state championship.
Finals
It’s a deep chart, but I like the winner of Waters/Bauman to beat Jacobs in the finals, or anyone else who emerges from the top half of the bracket for that matter.
Round of 16
The top wrestlers are pretty nicely distributed, and I have #’s 1-8 moving on to the quarters. This weight won’t really heat up until Friday morning, but #7 Andy Waterman of Constantine/#9 KJ Herremans of Kent City should be a solid Day 1 bout.
Quarters
Like a few other weights in D4, both of my projected finalists will have a tougher draw in quarters than the semis. #2 Dillen Decker of CCC will have to get through #3 Ali Rashad of Highland Park, and #1 Austin Hughes of Nouvel CC will likely see #4 Kyle Johnson of Hudson.
Semis
Depth wise this among D4’s weaker weights, and I think both Hughes and Decker are pretty safe bets to meet in the finals. #5 Connor Mills was a D3 SQ last season who has had a great postseason to date, but I think he’ll be a tad outmatched against Decker.
Finals
Hughes and Decker met a couple weeks prior, and Hughes won by a 3-1 score. In the season prior they met in both the district/regional finals. The first of those matches went to Decker, but Hughes came back to avenge the loss a week later. They certainly seem to be matched quite evenly, but after 3 consecutive finishes in the top-5, I think Hughes finally gets his gold.
Round of 16
There will be no shortage of excitement at this weight on Thursday, and the top-half of the bracket in particular looks especially loaded. Of all the matchups, I’m most interested to see #4 Colin Henry of Marlette/#6 Mark Workman of Hesperia. An injury kept Workman off the mat for the first half of the season, but he really impressed me by placing 5th at 140lbs as freshman last March.
Quarters
Anything other than #1 Josh Wendling of New Lothrop/#2 Spencer Reterstoff would be pretty shocking on the lower half of the bracket, but all 6 ranked wrestlers on the top half have a solid shot at the semis. Of this group I’m especially high on #5 Steve Rantz of Schoolcraft, who was a Hudson Super 16 champion in January.
Semis
Wendling is the clear favorite to repeat as state champion, but his toughest competition will likely come from Reterstoff, a returning state runner-up. Wendling may be a tad weaker than usual after making the cut to 152lbs to help his team last weekend, but I’m still pretty confident in his chances.
Finals
Whoever wrestles Wendling in the finals will be a pretty significant underdog, but of this field I like Rantz’s odd of an upset the most. He isn’t shy about attacking, and can score points in a hurry. That being said, I’m all in on Wendling to repeat.
Round of 16
In my opinion this is hands down the deepest weight in D4. Overall there are 9 returning state placers, and that’s not to mention the 2 returning SQ’s, or #8-ranked freshman Devan Kozel of Bangor. Most of the fireworks will be delayed until Friday, but #3 Tristan Rosted of Manton/#9 Jason Nash of Decatur should be a good battle between all-state seniors to get things started.
Quarters
#1 Taylor Krupp will probably be a bit much for the frosh Kozel in his Palace debut, but each of the quarterfinal matchups look fantastic. The most notable will pit #2 Shane Rodenburg of Kent City against Rosted in a battle of top-4 finishers from last season.
Semis
Both great matchups, up top I have Rodenburg sneaking by #6 Brody Conner of Lawton in matchup between extremely juniors, and on the opposite end I like Krupp to get past #5 Pat Brown of Sandusky in a clash of returning state runner-ups.
Finals
As incredibly deep as this weight, I think Krupp and Rodenburg are half a step ahead of the rest of the field, and likely to meet in a rematch from the regional finals. Krupp edged Rodenburg 5-3 last time around, and although the cut down to 160lbs for team states last weekend may have taken a bit out of him this just feels like a storybook season for New Lothrop’s senior class.
Round of 16
None of Day 1’s matchups are especially notable, and no one ranked between #1-8 will meet prior the quarters. Keep an eye on #9 Clayton Howd of St. Louis though, the sophomore is coming off a strong regional performance and should have a good shot against #6 Cole Southworth of Decautr.
Quarters
This is not among D4’s deeper weights, but it is relatively balanced beyond the top 3. #1 Jacob Cooper of Springport is an overwhelming favorite, and #2 Nathan Philburn Byron and #3 Cody Symons of New Lothrop pretty clearly represent the second tier. Symons has a solid opponent in #4 Charlie Robertson of Sand Creek, but all 3 feel like good bets to advance.
Semis
Symons was 3rd place finisher last season who has really grown into the weight class, but I see him being a bit outmatched against Cooper. Philburn is in pretty good shape on the opposite end, but #5 Cody Mikel of Schoolcraft should not be slept on.
Finals
Philburn is rock solid, and likely would have placed last year had he not scratched at the Palace. However, already a 2X finalist and 1X champ as a junior, I don’t see much chance of Cooper being upset.
Round of 16
The Day 1 matchups aren’t especially intriguing on the top-half of the bracket, but the opposite side should be a different story. I still like all the favorites to advance, but #2 Andrew Selke of Rogers City and #4 Jake Morgan of Hudson will be tested against #8 Dakota Clark of New Lothrop and #10 Adam Lammers of Springport, respectively.
Quarters
Harbin came out of nowhere to win regionals. On paper he is the favorite to emerge from the top of the bracket, but he has a limited number of matches under his belt, and should be in for a tough quarterfinal against #9 Owen Wilson of New Lothrop, a 2X SQ and 1X Placer. On the opposite end I think we are in for a great battle between Selke and Morgan. After missing all of last season with injury Selke is a still bit under the radar, but seems to enjoying a stellar senior campaign.
Semis
Getting through Morgan will be no easy task, but if that’s how out it plays out I’m interested to see Selke take on #1 Kevin Koenig of Laingsburg. He’s still putting it all together, but Koenig reached the finals as a freshman last season, and is a flat out physical specimen.
Finals
Koenig is the guy to beat, and I see Selke likely being his toughest test. Harbin’s undefeated record makes him a wild card, but, once again, the limited sample size makes me a bit hesitant.
Round of 16
The top quarter-bracket is stacked with all top-10 wrestlers, and somebody very good will be going 2 & BBQ. #6 Nick Burt of Addison’s results have been a bit up and down this season, but I think his decision to move up from 215lbs will end up being a wise one.
Quarters
#1 Ryan Prescott of Whittemore Prescott is among the heaviest of favorites at the Palace this season (no pun intended…ok I lied), but the other 3 quarterfinals seem pretty open for the taking. I’m really looking forward to watching #5 Logan Kenndy of Decatur who is having a spectacular freshman season in a weight class that is typically dominated by juniors and seniors.
Semis
As impressive as the younger Kennedy has been in his debut season I don’t see him being able to matchup with Prescott, but the other semi ought to be a pretty good one. TCSF’s #2 Jake Khoury is a returning state placer and slight favorite, but #3 Nate Boardman of Hillsdale has really broken out as one of the state’s top big men this season. I don’t feel strongly one way or the other, but Boardman seems to have a few more quality wins under his belt on the year.
Finals
Prescott is among the country’s top big men, and, although Khoury kept it to a 3-1 match at regionals, I don’t see him being beaten. I could buy it being a tight finals match, but I just can’t envision how anyone on this chart is going to score points on the rock solid defending champ.
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Bell injury defaulted to Thumm because Bell hurt his leg badly in their dstrict match so he had to defult and he defaulted again because he probably didnt want to further hurt it
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